Wind ShadowstrikeTier 2
at Michigan PTM Regionals
decks
2
(3.2% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
13
6-7-0
overall winrate
46.2%
ELO-adjusted winrate
54.0%
avg ELO +1.7 per match
expected value
47.4%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
49.9%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1230
· median 1230
· range 1208–1253
(2 pilots with an ELO rating)
967
Q1 1200
Q3 1371
1750
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wind Seiryuu | 12.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 11.1% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.2% | -7.8 |
| Fire Crux Mage | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 6.3% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Ravishing Mill | 6.3% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Fire Aggro | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 57.0% | +11.3 |
| Fire Suited | 4.8% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 55.7% | +9.1 |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 3.2% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.2% | 2 | 2-0-0 | 100.0% | 66.7% | 66.8% | +16.1 |
| Fire Umbra Guardian | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.7% | -10.2 |
| Water Allies | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 47.0% | -4.9 |
| Wind Arcane | 3.2% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 40.8% | -14.7 |
| Fire Aetherwing | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 60.8% | +17.3 |
| Fire Crux Merlin | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 1.6% | 1 | 1-0-0 | 100.0% | 60.0% | 58.7% | +13.9 |
| Fire Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Tera Mage | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Umbra Ciel | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Horse and Taxes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 41.0% | -14.4 |
| Water Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Genbu | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Slimes | 1.6% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 46.8% | -5.1 |
| Water Umbra Ranger | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Astra Cleric | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Chess | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Crux Lorraine | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Razorgale | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Silvie | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Slimes | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Tera Kongming | 1.6% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
